EUA e GB saúdam decisão de Liga Árabe de suspender a Siria. Haaretz avalia como ante-sala da intervenção militar

Primeiro, o editorial do Haaretz, jornal da maior importância em Israel, e profundamente bem informado sobre as movimentações conjunturais no Oriente Médio, a informação não pode ser desprezada. Depois a manifestação pública dos Estados Unidos (através de seu "porta-voz" Ba Kim Moon, secretário geral da Onu), e da Inglaterra, saudando a decisão da Liga Árabe de suspender a Siria de seu colegiado, deslegitimizando o governo Assad.
Estaria arrombada a porta para uma intervenção militar na Síria, nos termos da ocorrida na Líbia, para "proteção de civis diante da violências da repressão governamental às oposições". O Haaretz chama a atenção para os efeitos colaterais daí resultantes. 
A grande incógnita estaria na definição do governo iraniano, que, mesmo aliado do governo sírio, tem feito movimentos diversionistas. Houve encontros de membros do governo com representantes da oposição siria. 
Sem dúvida os aiatolahs iranianos são bem mais próximos de Saad, alawita, do que dos sunistas da Arábia Saudita - que , segundo documentos revelados pelo WikiLeaks, teriam feito apelo direto aos Estados Unidos para que atacassem o Irã. A sucessão na Arábia Saudita, com perspectiva de um governo mais fiundamentalmente sunita do que o atual, e portanto bem mais pró-EUA, é combustível na fogueira de especulações pró-radicalização das pretensões bélicas na região.
Enfim, na complexidade da situação pode estar o muro de contenção contra a loucura de uma eventual invasão da Siria. Que esse seja o desejo de Alah, porque o desdobramento de uma ação dessa dimensão deixa totalmente imprevisível o grau de perigo que cerca o futuro das relações internacionais em todo o mundo...
Seguem as matérias so Haaretz 

UN, U.K. welcome Arab League's suspension of Syria

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon describes decision to suspend Syria from Arab League meetings as 'strong and courageous'.

Haaaretz 13/11/11

The United Nations and Britain joined a chorus of approval for the Arab League's suspension of Syria that some Western leaders said should prompt tougher international action against President Bashar Assad.
Assad has pressed ahead with a crackdown on protesters against his rule despite an Arab League peace plan brokered on Nov. 2. The United Nations says more than 3,500 people have been killed in seven months of violence.

	UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
	Photo by: AP

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described the League's decision on Saturday as "strong and courageous."
"He welcomes the League's intention to provide protection for the civilians, and expresses his readiness to provide the relevant support when requested," a UN statement said.
The Arab League said on Saturday it would impose economic and political sanctions on Damascus and had appealed to member states to withdraw their ambassadors as well as calling for a meeting of Syrian opposition parties.
A spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron said, "This sends a clear message to President Assad and his regime who continue to refuse to allow political transition in Syria and are responsible for an escalation of violence and repression."
"We remain clear -- President Assad needs to step aside and political transition needs to be taken forward now."
 

Arab League may pave way for military action in Syria

A military move against Syria could also imply intent to attack Iran, just when the Western states want to dispel the fears that the Iranians, Russians and Chinese have of such an attack.

By Zvi Bar'el- 13/11/11 Tags: Syria Arab League Iran

The Arab League's decision to suspend Syria's membership, impose economic sanctions and discuss transition-period arrangements with the opposition, could pave the way to a military offensive on Syria, similar to the one on Libya.
However, it's doubtful whether Western states - who have so far used the lack of Arab support for intervention to justify their inaction - will take advantage of this. That's because, unlike the attack on Libya, an offensive against Syria could have dramatic regional repercussions.

	Syrian protesters burn a picture of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a protest in front of the Arab League headquarters in Cairo, Egypt, Saturday, Nov. 12, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

Iran could decide to open its own front and Hezbollah - as leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah threatened last week - could launch an attack on Israel. A military move against Syria could also imply intent to attack Iran, just when the Western states want to dispel the fears that the Iranians, Russians and Chinese have of such an attack. This is not the first time the Arab League has suspended a member state. It suspended Egypt's membership for 10 years after it signed the peace agreement with Israel, and suspended Libya's membership. But the decision against Syria is not merely a penal measure. In addition to delegitimizing President Bashar Assad's regime, it grants Arab legitimization to the large, albeit not exclusive, opposition faction - the National Syrian Council, established in Istanbul. The council has been recognized for the first time as the official representative of the Syrian people.
By so doing, the Arab League is assuming the role of "regime maker," which acts rather than merely responds. Its move is likely to lead Russia to meet with the opposition representatives for the first time as well. If such a meeting takes place, it will mark a dramatic turning point in Russia's position; until now it has sided with Assad.
Iraq has so far refrained from supporting the League's decision, but did not oppose it as Lebanon and Yemen did. Iraq, which coordinates its foreign policy with Iran, voted in a manner reflecting Iran's distress.
Iran, which is not a league member, is still sticking to its support of Assad. But in recent weeks Iranian leadership officials have been calling to stop the brutal oppression in Syria.
Opposition officials in Syria reported that Iranian officials have met Syrian opposition members to discuss "the future." As far as Iran is concerned, "the future" will oblige it to examine its own relations with the opposition, to make sure the Arab League's decision does not leave it bereft of Syrian allies.
Hence the importance of the league's decision, which poses a strategic dilemma both to the West and to Iran.